Policies for accelerating fossil heating systems replacement and building renovation

V	Pascal Vögeli Research Associate

Abstract
This policy analysis covers three key pieces of Swiss regulation related to heating system replacements: the Gebäudeprogramm subsidy scheme, the Federal Model Provisions of the Cantons (MuKEn2014), and complementary measures by the Cantons, including oil and gas heating bans. By analysing those regulations and comparing renovation and heating system replacement trends among the cantons, we identify common patterns, key barriers and success factors to inform policy of how to accelerate heating system replacement and renovation.

Our analysis shows that the Swiss policy approach based on a combination of ambitious renovation standards (sticks) and subsidies for energy-efficient renovations (carrots) is generally working. However, it should be strengthened and improved to increase its effectiveness. One critical improvement is an increased harmonisation of standards among the cantons. Despite efforts for harmonisation and coordination through the Model Provisions of the Cantons (MuKEn), regulations for heating system replacements and subsidies are still fragmented. For instance, MuKEn2014 asks for a 10% minimum share of renewable energy in new heating installations, but the cantons have implemented minimum shares varying from 10% to 100%.

Our analysis also shows that there is large potential for peer-to-peer learning among the cantons to increase the effectiveness of the policy instruments related to renovation and heating systems replacement, considering that there is large variability in performance /efficiency indicators such as: the speed of heating system replacements, a combination with deeper building renovation measures, or the amount of private capital leveraged by the subsidies. Some of these differences can be explained by structural differences among cantons (e.g., existing building stock, socio-economic realities and administrative capacities), but local implementation strategies also play a role.

We conclude that the policy approach to fossil heating replacements and energy efficiency renovations in Switzerland is working overall. It should be strengthened and improved instead of being scaled down. In our report, we provide concrete recommendations for policies and measures, as well as desirable design features, to improve the implementation of existing and forthcoming policies, like the MuKEn2025 guidelines, to support political decisions to accelerate the necessary transformation.

Authors: Yanguas Parra, Paola Andrea; Markard, Jochen.